How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe is popular PDF and ePub book, written by Mr.Alvar Kangur in 2019-09-20, it is a fantastic choice for those who relish reading online the Business & Economics genre. Let's immerse ourselves in this engaging Business & Economics book by exploring the summary and details provided below. Remember, How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe can be Read Online from any device for your convenience.
How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe Book PDF Summary
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Detail Book of How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe PDF
- Author : Mr.Alvar Kangur
- Release : 20 September 2019
- Publisher : International Monetary Fund
- ISBN : 9781513515618
- Genre : Business & Economics
- Total Page : 42 pages
- Language : English
- PDF File Size : 13,7 Mb
If you're still pondering over how to secure a PDF or EPUB version of the book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe by Mr.Alvar Kangur, don't worry! All you have to do is click the 'Get Book' buttons below to kick off your Download or Read Online journey. Just a friendly reminder: we don't upload or host the files ourselves.