How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads is popular PDF and ePub book, written by Jacopo Cimadomo in 2016-08-16, it is a fantastic choice for those who relish reading online the Business & Economics genre. Let's immerse ourselves in this engaging Business & Economics book by exploring the summary and details provided below. Remember, How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads can be Read Online from any device for your convenience.
How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads Book PDF Summary
This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.
Detail Book of How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads PDF
- Author : Jacopo Cimadomo
- Release : 16 August 2016
- Publisher : International Monetary Fund
- ISBN : 9781475526011
- Genre : Business & Economics
- Total Page : 46 pages
- Language : English
- PDF File Size : 7,8 Mb
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